Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5430…1786
crypto · 8 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$21
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 3 History 5 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 14 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% $0
crypto 34% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin SELL Anhelina Kalinina 88¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $7 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 58m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 88¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
≤30d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
≤90d 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
all 5 -1.1% -10.5% 40% 20% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 20% -8.9%
10% -19.0% 20% -17.6%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.0% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.85 · official $20.85 (match) · 14 history records