trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$3 | +250% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +44% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 13 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 08 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 01 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +64.4% | +48.7% | 67% | 67% | +49.9% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +64.4% | +48.7% | 67% | 67% | +49.9% |
| ≤90d | 6 | -17.7% | -25.6% | 33% | 33% | -24.6% |
| all | 6 | -17.7% | -25.6% | 33% | 33% | -24.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -25.6% | 33% | -24.6% |
| 10% | -32.7% | 33% | -31.8% |
| 15% | -39.2% | 33% | -38.4% |
| 20% | -45.1% | 17% | -44.4% |