Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:54:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5434…dee8 politics 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate28%23W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$2
sports 25% −$9
politics 23% −$1
other 17% −$3
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 22% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 14 +0.5% -9.1% 21% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 62 +3.7% -6.2% 26% 2% -9.7%
all 81 +3.0% -6.8% 28% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 5% -9.8%
10% -15.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -23.8% 4% -26.3%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses23 / 58
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage527d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 84¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $32 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $85 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $4 $0 +9%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $46 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $46 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $46 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $89 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $96 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $46 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $46 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $16 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $149 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $26 $0 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $42 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $245 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $46 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $22 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $4 $0 -4%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $7 −$1 -9%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $73 +$1 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 12 $52 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $92 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $3 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $6 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $16 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $34 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $40 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $40 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $27 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $5 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $32 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $34 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $2 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $33 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $14 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $17 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $4 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.57 · official $41.56 (match) · 354 history records