Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:07:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5437…293e
crypto · 1059 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$229 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$228 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$228
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses383 / 663
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1046 / 1059
History coverage94d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day19.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 7 History 1046 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$5
14 days−$10
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Up 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Down 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$1 +224%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$2 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$223
other 1% −$5
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $0 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -3.2% -12.4% 46% 46% -5.8%
≤30d 432 -15.3% -23.4% 38% 38% -22.7%
≤90d 1017 -19.5% -27.2% 37% 36% -20.4%
all 1046 -19.5% -27.2% 37% 36% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 36% -20.4%
10% -34.2% 33% -28.0%
15% -40.5% 30% -35.0%
20% -46.3% 25% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.21 · official $7.21 (match) · 2077 history records