Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5439…5aba crypto 62 markets active 12h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate43%26W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$18
other 3% −$7
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.8% -29.3% 42% 42% -34.1%
≤30d 61 -26.4% -33.4% 43% 36% -15.5%
≤90d 61 -26.4% -33.4% 43% 36% -15.5%
all 61 -26.4% -33.4% 43% 36% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 36% -15.5%
10% -39.8% 25% -23.6%
15% -45.6% 20% -31.0%
20% -51.0% 11% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses26 / 35
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage12d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 +$1 +60%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $1 +$2 +226%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 $0 +18%
Japan to win the second half? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +114%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $1 $0 +20%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$7 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$6 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 36¢ $2 12h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 82¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 83¢ $1 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 209 history records