Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:45:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x543f…37b2 sports 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,115 (+81%) realized +$6,145 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +120% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +62% what you keep after slip
Net edge+62%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,883per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$334est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,470now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$6,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+98.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +119.8% +98.9% 100% 100% +102.0%
≤30d 3 +119.8% +98.9% 100% 100% +102.0%
≤90d 3 +119.8% +98.9% 100% 100% +102.0%
all 3 +119.8% +98.9% 100% 100% +102.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +98.9% 100% +102.0%
10% +79.9% 100% +82.6%
15% ← realistic here +62.5% 100% +65.0%
20% +46.5% 100% +48.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +123% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +120% · $-wt +123% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,048 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,470
Realized+$6,145
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$334
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,883
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 40¢ $2,500 $2,470 −$30 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-3.5) Jun 21 $1,920 +$1,797 +94%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,049 +$3,261 +159%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,019 +$1,087 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 29¢ $3,137 11m
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $2,544 45m
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $45 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $2 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $0 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $10 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $1 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $46 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) SELL Japan 23¢ $449 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $1,030 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $94 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $23 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $18 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $13 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $27 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $425 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $177 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $5 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $482 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 80¢ $26 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 80¢ $2,079 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $516 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 50¢ $2,500 1h
Spread: Japan (-3.5) BUY Japan 14¢ $1,920 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,469.51 · official $2,469.51 (match) · 32 history records