Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:44:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5442…3671 other 125 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$470 (-1%) realized −$470 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 105L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$984now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$168
politics 35% −$37
sports 16% −$271
world 5% −$1
culture 5% −$3
tech 2% −$2
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 124 -3.6% -12.8% 15% 10% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 10% -10.0%
10% -21.1% 10% -18.6%
15% -28.8% 10% -26.5%
20% -35.7% 8% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$871) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$9 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$984
Realized−$470
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage132d
Avg bet$689
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $984 $984 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $954 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $685 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $1,718 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,770 −$3 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $857 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $787 −$1 -0%
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 17 $504 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $768 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $1,031 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 04 $237 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $319 +$2 +1%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $395 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $1,091 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,338 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,100 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $499 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $3,424 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 09 $887 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $869 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,900 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $1,731 −$2 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,019 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $3,078 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,413 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $971 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $2,390 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $771 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,102 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $422 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $413 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $1,751 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,188 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $537 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,405 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $2,018 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 06 $365 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $397 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $984 1h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $953 2h
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $954 5h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $684 28h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $685 31h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $859 46h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $860 2d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $583 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $584 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $855 7d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $857 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $786 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $787 8d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $793 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $794 9d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $206 10d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $298 10d
o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch? BUY No 100¢ $504 10d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $801 12d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $802 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $856 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $851 14d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $852 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $767 14d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $768 14d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $905 20d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $906 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $869 20d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $871 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $983.55 · official $983.55 (match) · 424 history records