Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5443…fde2 crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%79W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$9
other 0% −$8
tech 0% −$4
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 81 -2.2% -11.5% 98% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$6 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses79 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage234d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? No 91¢ 83¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 9? Jun 12 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 07 $122 $0 +0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? Jun 04 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $6 $0 +1%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? Jun 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? May 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? May 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 18 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 9? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? May 03 $106 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? May 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? Apr 28 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? Apr 16 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 6? Apr 07 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? Apr 05 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? Apr 03 $113 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? Apr 01 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 29 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? Mar 24 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $62,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $119 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 13? Mar 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 13 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 4? Mar 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on March 1? Mar 03 $117 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on February 25? Feb 26 $113 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 22? Feb 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 20? Feb 21 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 18? Feb 19 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 14? Feb 15 $115 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on February 12? Feb 13 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 10? Feb 10 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on February 8? Feb 09 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $90,000 and $92,000 on February 6 Feb 07 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on February 3? Feb 04 $114 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on February 1? Feb 02 $112 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Jan 30 $109 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $4 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 1h
Will Hyperliquid reach $76 in June? BUY No 91¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $118 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $122 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 20? BUY No 100¢ $102 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $102 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 30d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $103 37d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 37d
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $6 37d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $7 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 2? BUY No 100¢ $106 45d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $107 52d
Will SpaceX IPO by April 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 55d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 18? BUY No 100¢ $112 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on April 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $114 63d
Will Meta (META) close above $460 end of April? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $116 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $116 68d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $116 70d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $114 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $113 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on March 30? BUY No 100¢ $113 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $108 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $113 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.78 · official $21.78 (match) · 169 history records