Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5444…050d crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 400d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$41 (-1%) realized −$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%14W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
politics 33% −$2
other 10% −$18
crypto 5% −$21
sports 3% −$1
culture 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 7 -28.6% -35.4% 14% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 10 -20.0% -27.6% 30% 0% -11.2%
all 38 -5.0% -14.1% 37% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 0% -10.4%
10% -22.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.7% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses14 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage400d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 52¢ 52¢ $113 $111 −$1 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 19? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $660 −$1 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 17 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 11? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 27 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? May 20 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar Apr 30 $37 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? Apr 30 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 13? Mar 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $80 January 19-25? Feb 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? Feb 27 $58 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 6? Jan 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.30 December 1-7? Jan 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $106 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 14? Nov 21 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 13 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $42 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $118K on September 3? Sep 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert Lewandowski win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 02 $47 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $250 in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Saints win the NFC Championship? Aug 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jul 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will another candidate win the Polish presidential election? May 29 $276 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? May 29 $268 $0 -0%
Will Greens win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio May 21 $272 $0 -0%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City May 13 $285 $0 -0%
Will Scott Stringer win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York C May 13 $294 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $659 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $245 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 100¢ $163 1h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $415 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 100¢ $489 1h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY No 100¢ $652 1h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $653 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 1h
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $682 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 52¢ $114 2h
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Navid Shomali be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? BUY No 60¢ $22 21d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 32¢ $18 28d
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar SELL No 100¢ $37 48d
Will Charles Herbster win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primar SELL Yes 0¢ $0 48d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on April 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 69d
Will XRP dip to $0.70 March 9-15? BUY No 100¢ $17 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 96d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 110d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 110d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $58 138d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 148d
Will Solana dip to $80 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $18 148d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $42 148d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on January 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 164d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $53 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.35 · official $127.35 (match) · 103 history records