Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5447…127a other 119 markets active 12h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$262 (+18%) realized +$266 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%49W / 35L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$178now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$49
14 days+$23
30 days+$255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% +$150
other 28% −$90
sports 18% +$175
politics 4% +$1
tech 2% $0
finance 1% +$2
weather 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -12.6% -20.9% 53% 44% -21.5%
≤30d 84 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 45% +9.8%
≤90d 84 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 45% +9.8%
all 84 -7.4% -16.2% 58% 45% +9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.2% 45% +9.8%
10% -24.3% 39% -0.7%
15% -31.6% 30% -10.3%
20% -38.3% 20% -19.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$8 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$178
Realized+$266
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses49 / 35
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions26
Markets (closed)84 / 119
History coverage18d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+32%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 56¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 87¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Anthropic 85¢ 73¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 61¢ 61¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? Yes 87¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Grok 4.4 released by June 30? Yes 26¢ 11¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House Yes 18¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $20 +$3 +14%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Grok 4.4 released by June 15? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 +$6 +38%
NBA Finals: Game 1 Winner to be Champion? Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$18 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -99%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$4 +83%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $9 11h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 65¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 80¢ $10 12h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $16 12h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $17 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 55¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 95¢ $10 13h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 96¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Vici Gaming 81¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 56¢ $5 13h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY Power Rangers 95¢ $5 13h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $10 13h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 75¢ $5 13h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 18h
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 18h
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs ONSIDE GAMING (BO3) - VCL Korea: Reg BUY ONSIDE GAMING 69¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 33¢ $10 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 59¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 59¢ $10 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $10 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $10 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 18h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $15 18h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $178.21 · official $218.21 · 245 history records