Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:46:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5449…992b
world · 197 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,699 +45%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,847 · open −$217
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,131
Realized+$2,847
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses48 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions369
Markets (closed)61 / 197
History coverage5d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day735.9
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 369 History 61 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,666
7 days+$2,847
14 days+$2,847
30 days+$2,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $790 $858 +$68 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 16¢ $267 $482 +$215 (+80%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $381 $453 +$72 (+19%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $251 $252 +$1 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 77¢ 82¢ $227 $243 +$15 (+7%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 84¢ $217 $240 +$23 (+10%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 45¢ 50¢ $173 $194 +$21 (+12%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $178 $180 +$2 (+1%)
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $166 $174 +$9 (+5%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $192 $174 −$19 (-10%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $103 $150 +$47 (+46%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 91¢ 98¢ $131 $142 +$11 (+8%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $139 $141 +$2 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 97¢ $107 $116 +$8 (+8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $111 $113 +$2 (+2%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 82¢ 98¢ $92 $111 +$19 (+20%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 94¢ $101 $106 +$5 (+5%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 89¢ 96¢ $92 $99 +$6 (+7%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $86 $95 +$9 (+11%)
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $85 $90 +$5 (+6%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 76¢ 92¢ $68 $82 +$14 (+21%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $78 $80 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $75 $75 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $78 $74 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $13 −$7 -53%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 $0 +30%
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump's remarks not air? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +171%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $32 +$8 +25%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $43 +$16 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $824 +$2,540 +308%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1490+? Jun 11 $3 $0 +4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $353 +$15 +4%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Anas Mazdrashki vs David Eichenseher Jun 11 $7 +$1 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $270 +$82 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $12 −$9 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +193%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $87 +$18 +20%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $282 +$23 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Michael Tubbs advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will "Passenger" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12.5m and 14m? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will David Fennell advance from the California Lieutenant Governor Pri Jun 10 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or below on June 9? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$2 +56%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$23 +343%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$21 +254%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +47%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$5 +192%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +16%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $15 +$2 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $3 +$25 +991%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $17 +$4 +20%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $6 $0 -2%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 +8%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $2 $0 +7%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 09 $2 +$5 +215%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 50% +$2,746
other 32% +$140
politics 13% −$222
crypto 2% −$30
tech 1% −$8
finance 1% −$7
culture 0% +$7
sports 0% −$2
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 27¢ $1 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 1m
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? BUY No 99¢ $3 12m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 28¢ $1 27m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 39m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 29¢ $1 41m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+44.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +59.8% +44.6% 79% 43% +91.7%
≤30d 61 +59.8% +44.6% 79% 43% +91.7%
≤90d 61 +59.8% +44.6% 79% 43% +91.7%
all 61 +59.8% +44.6% 79% 43% +91.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover735.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.6% 43% +91.7%
10% ← realistic here +30.7% 31% +73.4%
15% +18.1% 23% +56.6%
20% +6.5% 20% +41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,131.35 · official $8,125.46 (match) · 3500 history records