Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:52:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x544a…1542 sports 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$392 (+4%) realized +$395 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate88%74W / 10L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$0
14 days+$381
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$288
other 21% +$103
world 9% +$12
finance 3% +$4
economics 3% +$2
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +3.4% -6.4% 94% 38% -9.5%
≤30d 75 -1.9% -11.2% 87% 45% -5.4%
≤90d 77 -1.8% -11.2% 87% 44% -5.6%
all 84 +0.5% -9.1% 88% 45% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 45% -5.8%
10% -17.8% 8% -14.8%
15% -25.7% 2% -23.1%
20% -33.0% 2% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$57 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized+$395
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses74 / 10
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions5
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage224d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals No 97¢ 98¢ $532 $541 +$9 (+2%)
Ibrahim Adel: 5+ shots No 97¢ 96¢ $146 $143 −$2 (-2%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $98 $98 +$0 (+0%)
Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals No 95¢ 97¢ $95 $97 +$2 (+2%)
Zizo: 3+ shots on target No 99¢ 52¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists Jun 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 2+ goals Jun 21 $71 +$4 +5%
Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals Jun 21 $532 +$68 +13%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) Jun 21 $72 +$3 +4%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $25 +$1 +5%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) Jun 21 $33 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia to win the second half? Jun 21 $94 +$6 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $31 +$1 +3%
Álex Grimaldo: 3+ goals Jun 21 $73 +$2 +3%
Víctor Muñoz: 3+ goals Jun 21 $119 +$6 +5%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs VP.Prodigy (+1.5) Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Ghibaudo Jun 21 $141 +$9 +6%
Set 1 Winner: Tomljanovic vs Erjavec Jun 21 $169 +$6 +3%
Koki Ogawa: 3+ goals Jun 21 $48 +$2 +4%
Ritsu Dōan: 3+ goals Jun 21 $72 +$2 +3%
Keisuke Gotō: 3+ goals Jun 21 $72 +$2 +3%
Dominic Canzone: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $146 +$4 +3%
Simon Adingra: 3+ goals Jun 21 $73 +$2 +3%
Wout Weghorst: 3+ goals Jun 20 $74 +$1 +2%
Donyell Malen: 3+ goals Jun 20 $215 +$10 +5%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $54 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $76 +$2 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Bondioli Jun 20 $24 +$1 +3%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 20 $62 +$13 +20%
ITF Blois: Francesca Curmi vs Ipek Oz Jun 20 $128 −$128 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 20 $175 −$175 -100%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $59 +$16 +27%
ITF Maanshan: Alberto Lim vs Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Jun 19 $130 +$20 +15%
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North Americ Jun 19 $17 +$3 +19%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Play Jun 19 $62 +$14 +22%
Dota 2: Hive vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $192 +$33 +17%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $263 +$37 +14%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Jun 17 $64 +$11 +18%
ITF Mohammedia: Clarissa Blomqvist vs Nour El Ouazzani Jun 17 $198 +$27 +14%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $194 +$32 +16%
ITF Tokyo: Kosuke Ogura vs Keisuke Saitoh Jun 17 $62 +$14 +22%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $65 +$10 +15%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $63 +$12 +19%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $188 +$34 +18%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Jesse Delaney Jun 16 $191 +$34 +18%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $62 +$13 +20%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 16 $66 +$9 +14%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 16 $425 −$163 -38%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Radu Mihai Papoe vs Anas Mazdrashki Jun 14 $249 +$51 +20%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Stefano D'agostino Jun 14 $249 +$51 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ibrahim Adel: 5+ shots BUY No 97¢ $49 18m
Ibrahim Adel: 5+ shots BUY No 97¢ $49 29m
Ibrahim Adel: 5+ shots BUY No 97¢ $49 29m
Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 31m
Haissem Hassan: 2+ goals BUY No 95¢ $48 31m
Zizo: 3+ shots on target BUY No 99¢ $25 44m
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $49 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Emam Ashour: 2+ goals BUY No 97¢ $48 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 96¢ $24 5h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 96¢ $24 5h
Spread: New York Yankees (-3.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 96¢ $24 5h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 95¢ $25 5h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 99¢ $33 5h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 100¢ $31 5h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-3.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 100¢ $26 5h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY Belgium 98¢ $29 5h
Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 96¢ $24 5h
Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals BUY No 98¢ $25 5h
Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists BUY No 100¢ $29 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.94 · official $892.94 (match) · 414 history records