Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:53:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

54 0x544c…f53a crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover

Total PnL −$34 (-16%) realized −$29 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%5W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$16per market

Trades / day12.8pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit85%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-15.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	10	-6.7%	-15.6%	50%	50%	-19.9%
≤30d	10	-6.7%	-15.6%	50%	50%	-19.9%
≤90d	10	-6.7%	-15.6%	50%	50%	-19.9%
all	10	-6.7%	-15.6%	50%	50%	-19.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.6%	50%	-19.9%
10%	-23.7%	40%	-27.5%
15%	-31.1%	30%	-34.5%
20%	-37.8%	30%	-40.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 68% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$11 vs −$15 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$29

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses5 / 5

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)10 / 13

History coverage2d

Avg bet$16

Trades / day12.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 10 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs	KT Rolster Challengers	63¢	0¢	$5	$0	−$5 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Jun 19	$31	+$23	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Jun 19	$41	−$40	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 19	$21	−$20	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Jun 19	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Jun 18	$5	+$1	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Jun 17	$26	+$16	+63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 17	$5	+$13	+252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 17	$16	+$4	+27%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1	BUY	10¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$54	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$5	1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff	BUY KT Rolster Challengers	63¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	BUY Up	53¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$5	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$5	23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	34¢	$20	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$31	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$26	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Up	33¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$5	46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$5	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $20.00 · 29 history records