Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:10:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

54 0x544e…cd3e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$17 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$277per market

Trades / day11.7pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$296now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-17.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	-8.9%	-17.6%	45%	36%	-8.7%
≤30d	11	-8.9%	-17.6%	45%	36%	-8.7%
≤90d	11	-8.9%	-17.6%	45%	36%	-8.7%
all	11	-8.9%	-17.6%	45%	36%	-8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.7 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-17.6%	36%	-8.7%
10%	-25.5%	36%	-17.4%
15%	-32.7%	27%	-25.4%
20%	-39.3%	18%	-32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 41% · top 2 79% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -9% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$164 vs −$150 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.91 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$296

Realized+$17

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage3d

Avg bet$277

Trades / day11.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Yes	58¢	56¢	$310	$296	−$13 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 28	$104	+$104	+101%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	Jun 28	$104	−$88	-85%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Jun 28	$103	−$61	-59%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Jun 28	$104	+$24	+23%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	Jun 28	$519	+$45	+9%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$354	−$306	-86%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran?	Jun 27	$102	−$85	-83%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	Jun 27	$203	−$86	-42%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$700	+$313	+45%
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw?	Jun 26	$225	+$333	+148%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$497	−$273	-55%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	58¢	$314	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$208	7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$104	7h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	SELL Down	7¢	$16	8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	BUY Down	44¢	$104	8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	SELL Up	23¢	$43	8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$128	8h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$104	8h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$374	13h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$190	14h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	SELL Yes	27¢	$190	14h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw?	BUY Yes	45¢	$328	15h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	18¢	$43	36h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran?	SELL Yes	3¢	$18	36h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	34¢	$117	36h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	55¢	$152	36h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	68¢	$202	36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	32¢	$157	37h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 2 IR Iran?	BUY Yes	17¢	$102	37h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	57¢	$203	37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	40¢	$204	37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	SELL Yes	64¢	$856	38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	36¢	$496	38h
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$558	2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	38¢	$21	2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$102	2d
Türkiye vs. United States: Second half draw?	BUY Yes	36¢	$102	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	SELL Yes	22¢	$223	2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	47¢	$497	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $296.26 · official $296.26 (match) · 30 history records