Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x544e…016d world 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 351d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
Total PnL −$77 (-6%) realized −$108 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate26%45W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$9
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$53
other 18% −$54
politics 12% −$75
crypto 2% −$8
economics 1% −$1
sports 1% −$10
finance 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -9.4% -18.1% 46% 23% -4.1%
≤30d 69 -26.3% -33.4% 36% 29% -12.6%
≤90d 129 -28.3% -35.1% 30% 25% +0.2%
all 176 -27.5% -34.4% 26% 20% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 20% -17.4%
10% -40.7% 15% -25.3%
15% -46.4% 11% -32.5%
20% -51.7% 7% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

351d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses45 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)176 / 185
History coverage351d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 38¢ 68¢ $18 $33 +$15 (+82%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 57¢ 90¢ $14 $22 +$8 (+57%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 68¢ $9 $13 +$3 (+32%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 19¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-68%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 20¢ 24¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+22%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? No 12¢ 13¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Jun 14 $30 +$6 +21%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? Jun 12 $22 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -79%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -61%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $36 +$7 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -12%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 06 $20 −$7 -36%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +15%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 30 $15 +$13 +85%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? May 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran strike Ras Tanura by April 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? May 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Mahmoud Abbas be the next leader out before 2027? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the next leader out before 2027? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? May 27 $2 −$1 -50%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 +$1 +100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $11 +$22 +200%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $2 +$1 +45%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 -33%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 -12%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +6%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 11¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 20¢ $3 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $36 15h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $36 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 26¢ $16 2d
Iran nuclear test before 2027? SELL Yes $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $16 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 53¢ $15 2d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $0 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes $1 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes $1 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $5 2d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $8 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 32¢ $43 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL No 17¢ $3 3d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 4d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 13d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 13d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? BUY Yes $2 15d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 15d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? SELL No 25¢ $13 15d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 20¢ $10 15d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 31¢ $5 15d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? BUY No $5 15d
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 15d
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $1 16d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.18 · official $93.18 (match) · 617 history records