Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

54 0x5451…616c other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$3,488 (-9%) realized −$4,206 · open +$718

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip

Net edge-30%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate80%4W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$6,471per market

Trades / day7.8pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$7,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-19.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-10.9%	-19.4%	80%	60%	-19.2%
≤30d	5	-10.9%	-19.4%	80%	60%	-19.2%
≤90d	5	-10.9%	-19.4%	80%	60%	-19.2%
all	5	-10.9%	-19.4%	80%	60%	-19.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.8 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-19.4%	60%	-19.2%
10% ← realistic here	-27.1%	0%	-27.0%
15%	-34.1%	0%	-34.0%
20%	-40.6%	0%	-40.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 47% · top 2 67% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$759 vs −$6,500 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.47 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$7,066

Realized−$4,206

Unrealized+$718

Win rate (resolved)80%

Wins / losses4 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage1d

Avg bet$6,471

Trades / day7.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	No	84¢	94¢	$6,348	$7,066	+$718 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5,954	+$428	+7%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5,326	+$574	+11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$4,516	+$597	+13%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$6,654	−$6,500	-98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$9,996	+$1,437	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	84¢	$6,379	59m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	SELL No	100¢	$6,382	1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	93¢	$5,954	4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	90¢	$5,326	16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	88¢	$4,516	20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	21¢	$6,654	23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	SELL No	100¢	$11,433	23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	87¢	$9,996	25h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,066.31 · official $7,066.31 (match) · 10 history records