Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x5453…a834 sports 408 markets active 1h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$860 (+1%) realized +$865 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%231W / 176L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$186per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$569est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$225
7 days+$149
14 days+$99
30 days−$2,646
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$432
other 26% −$1,093
world 3% +$854
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 56% 56% +4.2%
≤30d 35 -22.0% -29.4% 43% 43% -41.9%
≤90d 215 +3.5% -6.3% 57% 53% -11.5%
all 407 +1.3% -8.3% 57% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 53% -9.3%
10% -17.1% 46% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 37% -25.9%
20% -32.5% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$116 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized+$865
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses231 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$569
Open positions1
Markets (closed)407 / 408
History coverage200d
Avg bet$186
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $362 +$131 +36%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $121 +$31 +26%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $67 −$66 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $124 +$64 +51%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $102 −$5 -5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $60 +$69 +115%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $77 −$75 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$34 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $35 −$35 -99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $250 −$245 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $102 +$96 +94%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 09 $100 +$54 +54%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $78 +$23 +29%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $53 +$25 +48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $55 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $80 −$79 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $65 +$15 +23%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $68 −$2 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $51 +$17 +32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $34 +$17 +48%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $81 −$81 -99%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 04 $22 −$22 -98%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $56 −$55 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $202 −$200 -99%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner May 30 $650 −$640 -98%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $233 −$230 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $649 +$233 +36%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $421 −$417 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 27 $424 −$4 -1%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 27 $512 −$500 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $994 −$58 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 4 Winner May 24 $367 −$363 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 23 $523 −$519 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $182 +$81 +44%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 23 $198 +$62 +31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner May 22 $102 +$102 +101%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $58 −$56 -97%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner May 21 $102 +$110 +107%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner May 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $201 +$37 +18%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 1 Winner May 20 $203 +$9 +4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $203 +$243 +120%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $201 +$37 +18%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $202 +$131 +65%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 3 Winner May 17 $256 +$35 +14%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner May 17 $202 +$102 +50%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $936 +$512 +55%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $973 −$35 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Play May 17 $697 +$276 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 65¢ $93 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $76 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $208 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $210 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 47¢ $209 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 33¢ $152 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $153 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 48¢ $67 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $121 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 90¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 90¢ $187 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 55¢ $54 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $71 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 46¢ $96 27h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $102 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 90¢ $130 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 41¢ $60 30h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $77 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $77 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $43 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $35 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 32¢ $128 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $20 10d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $102 10d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 96¢ $197 12d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 49¢ $102 12d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 95¢ $154 12d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 61¢ $100 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.78 · official $94.78 (match) · 1319 history records