Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:07:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5454…3805 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$216 (+5%) realized +$297 · open −$81
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,647now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$242
14 days+$347
30 days+$301
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 85% +$89
sports 11% +$69
other 2% +$37
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -4.9% -13.9% 21% 21% +3.8%
≤30d 50 +13.2% +2.4% 28% 24% +1.6%
≤90d 52 +11.6% +1.0% 29% 25% +0.4%
all 52 +11.6% +1.0% 29% 25% +0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.0% 25% +0.4%
10% -8.7% 23% -9.2%
15% -17.5% 21% -18.0%
20% -25.6% 19% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$13 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,647
Realized+$297
Unrealized−$81
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)52 / 59
History coverage69d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $858 $741 −$117 (-14%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $600 $673 +$74 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 21¢ $43 $94 +$51 (+120%)
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $148 $85 −$64 (-43%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $34 $35 +$1 (+4%)
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $40 $15 −$25 (-62%)
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 28 $4 $0 -4%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$30 +291%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $10 +$24 +238%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $12 −$3 -27%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$67 +650%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $1,345 +$261 +19%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $15 +$52 +338%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -19%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$101 +982%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $31 +$1 +4%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 +$12 +262%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $39 −$39 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$97 +474%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $27 +$32 +120%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $439 −$66 -15%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +62%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $65 +$4 +6%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $60 +$15 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $52 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $4 13h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 13h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 13h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $54 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $28 3d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 4d
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $56 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $480 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $551 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $30 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $30 5d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,647.28 · official $1,647.28 (match) · 633 history records