Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:25:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

54 0x5457…1940 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$11 (-1%) realized −$13 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip

Net edge-23%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$143per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$1,082now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-16.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-7.4%	-16.2%	0%	0%	-16.2%
≤30d	1	-7.4%	-16.2%	0%	0%	-16.2%
≤90d	1	-7.4%	-16.2%	0%	0%	-16.2%
all	1	-7.4%	-16.2%	0%	0%	-16.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.2%	0%	-16.2%
10%	-24.2%	0%	-24.2%
15%	-31.5%	0%	-31.5%
20%	-38.3%	0%	-38.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$15 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$1,082

Realized−$13

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions8

Markets (closed)1 / 9

History coverage1d

Avg bet$143

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 8 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	99¢	99¢	$500	$501	+$1 (+0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	74¢	74¢	$200	$199	−$1 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?	No	91¢	96¢	$100	$105	+$5 (+5%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	89¢	88¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	64¢	62¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-3%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$20	$20	−$0 (-2%)
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	Ghana	64¢	64¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$200	−$15	-7%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	68¢	$20	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	74¢	$202	2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5)	BUY Ghana	64¢	$10	7h
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	64¢	$51	9h
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	9h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	89¢	$100	9h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	99¢	$500	19h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 29?	BUY No	91¢	$100	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	92¢	$185	19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	99¢	$200	20h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,081.51 · official $1,081.26 (match) · 10 history records