Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:07:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5458…5dd8 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+0%) realized +$75 · open −$48
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate80%20W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$207
14 days−$207
30 days−$207
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$376
other 7% +$64
crypto 3% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.8% +5.7% 80% 44% -12.2%
≤30d 25 +16.8% +5.7% 80% 44% -12.2%
≤90d 25 +16.8% +5.7% 80% 44% -12.2%
all 25 +16.8% +5.7% 80% 44% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.7% 44% -12.2%
10% -4.4% 36% -20.6%
15% -13.7% 24% -28.3%
20% -22.1% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 42% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$261 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized+$75
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses20 / 5
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 28¢ $70 $22 −$48 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $401 −$400 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $202 +$80 +40%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $301 +$22 +7%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$33 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $212 +$96 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 +$58 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $200 +$8 +4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$8 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$15 +14%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $526 −$519 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $496 +$30 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $304 −$300 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $50 −$48 -96%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$30 +6%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $201 +$31 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$48 +10%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $201 +$62 +31%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $201 +$55 +27%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $206 +$17 +8%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$28 +139%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $401 +$20 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$87 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $99 +$363 +365%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $401 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $281 6h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $202 8h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 9h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $301 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 43¢ $85 23h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $309 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $212 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 30h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $200 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $100 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $526 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $527 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $496 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $304 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over $1 3d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $50 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $531 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $501 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $232 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $201 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $549 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $501 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 76¢ $201 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $256 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $22.50 (match) · 47 history records