Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x545d…70ff sports 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$54 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate65%58W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days+$110
14 days−$62
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$217
other 41% −$206
world 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +8.2% -2.1% 71% 71% +0.9%
≤30d 89 +2.7% -7.0% 65% 62% -9.6%
≤90d 89 +2.7% -7.0% 65% 62% -9.6%
all 89 +2.7% -7.0% 65% 62% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 62% -9.6%
10% -15.9% 42% -18.3%
15% -24.1% 27% -26.2%
20% -31.5% 18% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$25 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses58 / 31
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)89 / 96
History coverage24d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Team Liquid 73¢ 100¢ $30 $40 +$11 (+36%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 90¢ 100¢ $36 $40 +$4 (+11%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 79¢ 98¢ $24 $30 +$6 (+24%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ 24¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $83 +$17 +21%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Jun 29 $39 +$6 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $95 +$25 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $27 +$9 +33%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $19 +$21 +109%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $13 +$4 +31%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $41 −$9 -21%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $20 +$6 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $76 +$9 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $21 +$3 +13%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $14 +$2 +16%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 +$10 +50%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $20 +$7 +36%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 +$10 +48%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $9 +$1 +16%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $9 +$3 +27%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $9 +$3 +27%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $14 +$12 +90%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $14 +$7 +54%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $17 +$18 +109%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Curaçao O/U 0.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win Jun 26 $4 +$3 +76%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $6 +$1 +20%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $5 +$3 +70%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $7 +$2 +24%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $7 +$2 +32%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $9 +$7 +73%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $9 +$9 +96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $13 −$11 -87%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $4 +$2 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada Jun 24 $3 +$5 +172%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 +$4 +18%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $18 $0 -2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $27 −$18 -69%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $47 +$18 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $24 +$10 +40%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $65 +$12 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 30¢ $13 2m
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 90¢ $36 51m
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $100 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In SELL T1 100¢ $44 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 91¢ $18 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 56¢ $11 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Team Liquid 79¢ $24 1h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $7 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $18 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 91¢ $27 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $16 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 76¢ $15 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $120 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 70¢ $21 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $35 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 87¢ $26 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 82¢ $17 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $32 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 92¢ $9 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 68¢ $17 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 87¢ $39 4h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY South Africa 29¢ $5 13h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $19 13h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming $2 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 71¢ $12 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 87¢ $31 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 19¢ $10 23h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 77¢ $20 24h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 76¢ $13 25h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $85 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.91 · official $119.56 (match) · 299 history records