Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x545f…66db other 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$984 (-3%) realized −$1,557 · open +$573
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate59%66W / 45L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$3,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$69
7 days−$69
14 days−$69
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$60
sports 32% −$1,007
politics 6% +$457
weather 6% −$212
crypto 3% −$209
world 3% +$96
finance 2% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -33.3% -39.6% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤30d 2 -33.3% -39.6% 0% 0% -39.0%
≤90d 14 -34.7% -40.9% 36% 14% -25.2%
all 111 -8.8% -17.5% 59% 28% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 28% -14.3%
10% -25.4% 13% -22.5%
15% -32.6% 8% -30.0%
20% -39.2% 5% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$114 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$3,570
Realized−$1,557
Unrealized+$573
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses66 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions7
Markets (closed)111 / 118
History coverage108d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $129 −$39 -30%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $83 −$30 -36%
Roland Garros ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Nishesh Basavareddy May 24 $223 −$222 -100%
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 0.5 May 24 $2 $0 +8%
Bolton Wanderers FC vs. Stockport County FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $430 −$13 -3%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC: O/U 4.5 May 24 $2 $0 +4%
ADC Juan Pablo II College vs. FBC Melgar: O/U 1.5 May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Racing Club de Lens vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 May 22 $8 $0 +6%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 22 $204 −$197 -97%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Anna Bondar Apr 27 $495 $0 +0%
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26? Apr 22 $1,443 +$558 +39%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 21 $260 −$260 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 14 $1,122 −$519 -46%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 1? Apr 02 $98 +$20 +20%
Will América de Cali win on 2026-03-25? Mar 26 $24 $0 +2%
Will Juliano Floss be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Bras Mar 25 $90 +$69 +77%
Will Jonas Sulzbach be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Bra Mar 25 $97 +$75 +78%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 24 $439 −$83 -19%
Will Jaguares de Córdoba FC vs. Águilas Doradas Rionegro end in a draw Mar 24 $212 +$55 +26%
Will CA Barracas Central win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $32 −$9 -27%
Will AFC Unirea Slobozia win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $310 −$248 -80%
Will Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa win on 2026-03-23? Mar 24 $71 +$9 +12%
Will Boyacá Chicó FC win on 2026-03-23? Mar 23 $243 +$57 +23%
Miami Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Terence Atmane Mar 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $398 −$398 -100%
Miami Open: Ben Shelton vs Alexander Shevchenko Mar 22 $584 −$584 -100%
Stade Rennais FC 1901 vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5 Mar 22 $427 +$22 +5%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $352 +$57 +16%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $322 +$28 +9%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 22 $1,697 −$255 -15%
Miami Open: Andrey Rublev vs Alejandro Tabilo Mar 21 $400 +$101 +25%
Juventus FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $131 +$3 +2%
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Vitória SC: O/U 3.5 Mar 21 $308 +$4 +1%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $150 −$66 -44%
Miami Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Taylor Fritz Mar 21 $589 +$50 +8%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $3 $0 +12%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $517 +$8 +2%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $252 +$47 +19%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $320 −$141 -44%
Murcia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Pablo Carreno Busta Mar 20 $268 +$51 +19%
Spread: Adelaide United FC (-2.5) Mar 20 $166 +$4 +2%
Will Shanghai Haigang FC win on 2026-03-20? Mar 20 $94 $0 +0%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $470 −$71 -15%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $142 +$10 +7%
Will Kayserispor win on 2026-03-19? Mar 19 $725 +$175 +24%
Murcia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jan Choinski Mar 19 $170 −$170 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $1,744 +$100 +6%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) Mar 19 $585 +$258 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 0m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $50 0m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 33¢ $51 1m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $2 5m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 23¢ $50 7m
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 22¢ $51 10m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $41 39m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $36 39m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 39m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $15 40m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $50 41m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $3 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $1 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $5 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $65 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $14 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 91¢ $2 42m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $9 43m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 85¢ $9 43m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $9 43m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 84¢ $9 43m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 81¢ $29 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $11 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $11 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $11 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $1 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $11 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 81¢ $12 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 44m
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 79¢ $13 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,569.52 · official $3,569.69 (match) · 867 history records