Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x545f…bede other 73 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10,609 (-29%) realized −$10,518 · open −$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 46L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$502per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$716
7 days−$16,374
14 days−$15,626
30 days−$15,626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$10,994
other 5% +$344
crypto 0% −$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -29.9% -36.5% 21% 21% -84.8%
≤30d 65 +11.6% +1.0% 29% 29% -76.2%
≤90d 65 +11.6% +1.0% 29% 29% -76.2%
all 69 +13.0% +2.2% 33% 33% -36.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 33% -36.2%
10% -7.6% 29% -42.3%
15% -16.5% 20% -47.8%
20% -24.7% 13% -53.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +89% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$390 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$10,518
Unrealized−$91
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)69 / 73
History coverage219d
Avg bet$502
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 56¢ 34¢ $200 $119 −$81 (-41%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $202 +$88 +44%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $62 +$688 +1116%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? Jun 27 $62 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 27 $61 −$60 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? Jun 27 $62 −$60 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $201 −$201 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 27 $201 −$201 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 27 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 27 $302 −$302 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $203 −$203 -100%
Thunder vs. Heat Jun 27 $495 −$495 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 27 $499 −$499 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 27 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Rockets vs. Nuggets Jun 27 $528 −$528 -100%
Heat vs. Hawks Jun 27 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Clippers vs. Spurs Jun 27 $2,603 −$2,484 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 27 $2,856 −$2,856 -100%
Kings vs. Nuggets Jun 27 $6,972 −$6,972 -100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $202 +$115 +57%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $201 +$62 +31%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $21 +$104 +510%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $10 +$73 +712%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 27¢ $41 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 6h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 69¢ $202 27h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 Portugal? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 7¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 Portugal? BUY Yes 13¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Argentina? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 21¢ $61 4d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $201 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $202 5d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 5d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 75¢ $201 5d
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) BUY Qatar 76¢ $201 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.90 · official $168.90 (match) · 160 history records