Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x5460…8724 other 58 markets active 12d ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$266 (-5%) realized −$266 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%51W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$95
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$46
world 6% +$13
crypto 4% −$25
sports 4% −$217
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 56 -4.2% -13.3% 89% 12% -11.8%
≤90d 58 -5.7% -14.6% 88% 12% -13.8%
all 58 -5.7% -14.6% 88% 12% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 12% -13.8%
10% -22.8% 3% -22.0%
15% -30.3% 0% -29.6%
20% -37.1% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$73 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$266
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses51 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)58 / 58
History coverage52d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 58 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $27 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $25 +$3 +12%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$3 +16%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $17 +$5 +27%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $105 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $128 +$6 +5%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $124 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $121 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $120 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $113 +$6 +6%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $112 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $106 +$5 +5%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $78 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 15 $75 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $71 +$4 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $69 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $66 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: Athletic Club 0 - 2 Goiás EC? Jun 14 $64 +$3 +4%
Exact Score: São Bernardo FC 0 - 1 SC Recife? Jun 14 $58 +$6 +10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $214 −$213 -99%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $208 +$6 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $198 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Haiti 2 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $190 +$7 +4%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 0 Scotland? Jun 14 $182 +$8 +4%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 14 $178 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $165 +$14 +8%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $192 +$10 +5%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $188 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: CD Coquimbo Unido 0 - 1 O'Higgins FC? Jun 13 $178 +$11 +6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $173 +$5 +3%
Exact Score: Audax CS Italiano 0 - 1 CD La Serena? Jun 13 $169 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $211 +$4 +2%
Exact Score: OC Safi 3 - 0 Kawkab AC? Jun 12 $204 +$8 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $11 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $10 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 12d
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 89¢ $32 12d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 100¢ $32 12d
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY No 94¢ $30 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 90¢ $27 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL No 99¢ $27 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY No 88¢ $25 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL No 100¢ $25 12d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 86¢ $21 12d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 78¢ $17 12d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL No 100¢ $17 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records