Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x5460…8cd8 other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$3
other 25% +$2
politics 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
crypto 3% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.3% -6.5% 71% 14% -8.1%
≤30d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 7% -9.0%
≤90d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 7% -9.0%
all 39 -1.3% -10.7% 54% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 5% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 0% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.96 per $1 lost it wins $6.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage458d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $2 $0 +12%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $19 +$1 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $78 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $31 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $62 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $67 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $39 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $95 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jack Draper win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 31 $2 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 13 $12 $0 -2%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 10 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 09 $6 $0 -2%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 08 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? May 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 57°F or higher on March 27? Mar 29 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in scoring? Mar 22 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 31h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 35h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 45h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $18 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $24 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $15 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $17 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $14 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $27 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 48¢ $31 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $8 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $8 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $34 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $29 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $22 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.84 · official $37.84 (match) · 142 history records