Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5464…2900 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$48 (-1%) realized −$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%30W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$91now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 87% −$54
other 10% +$1
politics 1% −$1
sports 1% +$8
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 27 -1.6% -11.0% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 33 -1.0% -10.4% 36% 3% -10.2%
all 74 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 3% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 1% -26.5%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$91
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses30 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage489d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $91 $91 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 21 $135 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $257 +$2 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 +$2 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $136 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $119 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $75 −$2 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 11 $134 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $6 $0 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $172 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $121 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $242 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $120 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $124 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $250 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $384 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $121 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $119 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $168 +$2 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $386 −$3 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $120 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $117 +$2 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $184 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $121 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $123 −$4 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $168 −$50 -30%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $198 +$8 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $179 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $146 +$16 +11%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,027 −$29 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $984 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $984 $0 -0%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Dec 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 05 $29 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -38%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jun 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will valid votes be more than 38 million in South Korean election? Jun 02 $16 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 31 $21 $0 -1%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem May 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after May 30 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 26 $17 $0 +1%
Will Luís Montenegro be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the May 21 $17 +$1 +7%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? May 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $135 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $64 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $71 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $135 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $135 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $135 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $62 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $40 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $21 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $122 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $63 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $42 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $131 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $131 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $119 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $119 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $68 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $75 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 10d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $133 11d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $134 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.71 · official $90.71 (match) · 281 history records