trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $1,535 | +$3,465 | +226% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? | May 30 | $242 | +$1,834 | +759% |
| Claude 4.8 released by May 31? | May 29 | $1,525 | +$134 | +9% |
| Claude 4.8 released by June 15? | May 29 | $10,048 | +$107 | +1% |
| Claude 4.8 released by June 30? | May 29 | $8,446 | +$86 | +1% |
| Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? | May 28 | $1,874 | +$2,840 | +152% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | May 27 | $48 | −$48 | -100% |
| Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? | May 15 | $260 | +$740 | +285% |
| Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | May 15 | $5,868 | +$2,282 | +39% |
| Will Stefon Diggs win the Super Bowl LX MVP? | Feb 09 | $735 | −$733 | -100% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Feb 07 | $60,166 | +$15,144 | +25% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in over 2 hours and 30 minutes? | Jan 25 | $9,112 | −$4,265 | -47% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minut | Jan 25 | $10,011 | −$4,224 | -42% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute | Jan 25 | $14,684 | −$29 | -0% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute | Jan 25 | $11,491 | −$944 | -8% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 15 minute | Jan 25 | $26,860 | −$6,366 | -24% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours | Jan 25 | $13,498 | −$178 | -1% |
| Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour? | Jan 25 | $4,679 | −$4,679 | -100% |
| Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? | May 19 | $614,293 | −$614,293 | -100% |
| Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? | May 19 | $670,908 | −$670,908 | -100% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | May 19 | $5,412 | +$5,133 | +95% |
| Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 30 | $182,454 | +$118,514 | +65% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? | Apr 30 | $11,123 | −$5,797 | -52% |
| Liberals win majority in Canadian election? | Apr 30 | $16,920 | −$11,389 | -67% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Apr 30 | $230,503 | +$270,499 | +117% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +225.7% | +194.7% | 100% | 100% | +194.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +152.3% | +128.3% | 89% | 56% | +25.2% |
| ≤90d | 9 | +152.3% | +128.3% | 89% | 56% | +25.2% |
| all | 25 | +26.6% | +14.5% | 48% | 36% | -53.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +14.5% | 36% | -53.6% |
| 10% ← realistic here | +3.6% | 36% | -58.0% |
| 15% | -6.4% | 32% | -62.1% |
| 20% | -15.6% | 28% | -65.8% |