Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:03:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5466…4aa4 crypto 954 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$129 (-2%) realized −$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate71%673W / 281L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$8
14 days−$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$159
world 3% +$3
other 1% −$4
politics 0% −$8
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -2.0% -11.4% 83% 51% -11.2%
≤30d 326 -0.2% -9.7% 75% 65% -8.8%
≤90d 954 -4.4% -13.5% 71% 28% -12.3%
all 954 -4.4% -13.5% 71% 28% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 28% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 17% -20.7%
15% -29.4% 12% -28.3%
20% -36.3% 10% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses673 / 281
Open positions0
Markets (closed)954 / 954
History coverage85d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 954 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3174 history records