Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
54 0x5468…e319 other 45 markets active 3h ago coverage 676d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$17 (+18%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$36
14 days+$36
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$14
sports 40% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +62.5% +47.0% 29% 29% +41.7%
≤30d 31 +62.5% +47.0% 29% 29% +41.7%
≤90d 31 +62.5% +47.0% 29% 29% +41.7%
all 36 +39.9% +26.6% 25% 25% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.6% 25% +8.8%
10% +14.5% 25% -1.6%
15% +3.4% 25% -11.1%
20% -6.7% 25% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late +139% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

676d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)36 / 45
History coverage676d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$6 +325%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$12 +1577%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +146%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 +$24 +423%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 −$4 -64%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$7 +596%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Lakers vs. Warriors Mar 01 $1 −$1 -100%
AFC U23 Final: China vs. Japan Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Nov 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Gold in Men's Basketball? Aug 11 $10 −$10 -100%
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? Aug 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 28h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 28h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 28h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 28h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 40h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 40h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $2 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.79 · official $10.79 (match) · 63 history records