Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
54 0x5469…c822 sports 328 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$11 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate51%165W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day38.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$37
7 days−$69
14 days−$18
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$39
weather 16% +$23
other 12% +$2
finance 1% −$6
crypto 1% −$7
politics 1% +$1
world 0% −$6
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -11.3% -19.7% 47% 47% -19.5%
≤30d 321 -3.4% -12.6% 51% 48% -11.5%
≤90d 321 -3.4% -12.6% 51% 48% -11.5%
all 321 -3.4% -12.6% 51% 48% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 48% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 42% -20.0%
15% -28.6% 35% -27.7%
20% -35.6% 25% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses165 / 156
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions7
Markets (closed)321 / 328
History coverage18d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day38.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? No 65¢ 66¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees No 26¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+46%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Over 21¢ 49¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+130%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners Over 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners Over 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$1 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$2 -25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$6 +130%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $9 +$2 +22%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +92%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +117%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$3 +144%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 +$3 +144%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $2 +$3 +127%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3 +$2 +96%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $3 +$2 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 46 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 47 million views on day 3 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -94%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +45%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +33%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$2 +52%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 27m
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 27m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners SELL Over 60¢ $1 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $2 3h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 57¢ $3 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 50¢ $0 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 34¢ $2 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $3 3h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 65¢ $3 4h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $1 5h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $5 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $0 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $4 7h
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $6 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $2 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 66¢ $5 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 20¢ $1 9h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $11 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.14 · official $12.14 (match) · 913 history records