Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x546a…1988 crypto 1381 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 21d only
✗ bot/MM pace (104 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$214 (-2%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%827W / 599L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day103.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,127
7 days−$1,602
14 days−$878
30 days−$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,784
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (104 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 727 -38.8% -44.6% 39% 39% -33.4%
≤30d 1426 -5.1% -14.2% 58% 58% -13.5%
≤90d 1426 -5.1% -14.2% 58% 58% -13.5%
all 1426 -5.1% -14.2% 58% 58% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover103.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 58% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 49% -21.8%
15% -29.9% 34% -29.4%
20% -36.7% 25% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses827 / 599
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1426 / 1381
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day103.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1426 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 3, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 19, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $17 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $17 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records