Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x546c…91a4 crypto 682 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$833 (+7%) realized +$833 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%415W / 267L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days−$195
14 days−$41
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% +$435
other 8% +$185
sports 5% −$25
world 1% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -19.6% -27.2% 44% 42% -20.7%
≤30d 237 +1.7% -8.0% 53% 51% -8.8%
≤90d 475 +1.1% -8.5% 55% 54% -6.7%
all 682 +2.3% -7.4% 61% 52% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 52% -4.7%
10% -16.3% 50% -13.9%
15% -24.4% 49% -22.2%
20% -31.8% 47% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$833
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses415 / 267
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)682 / 682
History coverage159d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 682 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $55 +$39 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $27 +$20 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $67 +$57 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$8 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$22 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $166 −$166 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$30 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$5 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $67 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $30 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $11 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1456 history records