Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:24:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5470…0af7 weather 265 markets active 3h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (80 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,084 (-38%) realized −$5,911 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%151W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day80.1pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,327now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$210
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (80 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 +1.8% -7.9% 75% 75% -5.9%
≤30d 239 -9.7% -18.3% 59% 59% -10.4%
≤90d 250 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 60% -9.8%
all 250 -7.1% -15.9% 60% 60% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover80.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.9% 60% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -24.0% 60% -18.4%
15% -31.3% 21% -26.3%
20% -38.0% 9% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$37 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,327
Realized−$5,911
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses151 / 99
Open positions15
Markets (closed)250 / 265
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$61
Trades / day80.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 19? No 74¢ 91¢ $100 $122 +$22 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? No 77¢ 86¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? No 70¢ 78¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? No 66¢ 71¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? No 69¢ 70¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? No 74¢ 74¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? No 76¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 19? No 69¢ 68¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 19? No 74¢ 72¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 20? No 72¢ 70¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 19? No 65¢ 64¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 19? No 67¢ 62¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 19? No 78¢ 70¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 18? No 75¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 18? No 75¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $101 +$40 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 96-97°F on June 17? Jun 18 $101 +$39 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$38 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$25 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$29 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$30 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$49 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$29 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$31 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $101 +$35 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$25 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $100 +$31 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$31 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $101 +$27 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $101 +$38 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$32 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$27 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$36 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$54 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 14 $101 +$40 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$30 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$33 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$27 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$33 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $102 +$40 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$41 +41%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$30 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$39 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$40 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $51 +$15 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $93 +$38 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 78¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 69¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 67¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 66¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 65¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 20? BUY No 77¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 64¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 75¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 76¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 70¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on June 20? BUY No 74¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 68¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,327.15 · official $1,327.15 (match) · 3500 history records