Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:15:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x5474…88fc
crypto · 353 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1,156 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,157 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$213
Realized−$1,157
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses186 / 328
Open positions1
Markets (closed)514 / 353
History coverage1d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day2609.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 514 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,157
7 days−$1,157
14 days−$1,157
30 days−$1,157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 63¢ 100¢ $75 $120 +$45 (+59%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 48¢ 100¢ $29 $60 +$32 (+110%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Up 20¢ 50¢ $8 $20 +$12 (+159%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Down 46¢ 50¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Down 46¢ 100¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+117%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $4 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $15 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $0 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $0 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $8 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $7 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $0 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 19% -14.8%
≤30d 514 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 19% -14.8%
≤90d 514 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 19% -14.8%
all 514 -29.5% -36.2% 36% 19% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2609.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 19% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 11% -23.0%
15% -47.9% 7% -30.4%
20% -53.0% 5% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.00 · official $212.16 (match) · 3500 history records