Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:19:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x547b…ebbb crypto 1381 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 93d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$170 (-1%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate73%1007W / 374L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$153
14 days−$244
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$371
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -5.1% -14.2% 79% 76% -19.5%
≤30d 531 +0.4% -9.2% 80% 78% -9.5%
≤90d 1355 -2.7% -11.9% 73% 68% -12.1%
all 1381 -2.3% -11.6% 73% 68% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 68% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 39% -20.2%
15% -27.8% 16% -27.9%
20% -34.9% 9% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1007 / 374
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1381 / 1381
History coverage94d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1381 Trades
no open positions (118 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$21 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $92 +$22 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $9 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$9 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +13%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$8 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +33%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $7 +$2 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$6 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$1 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$1 +21%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$2 +29%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 +$2 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $29 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $12 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $41 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $9 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $92 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $92 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $9 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $1 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $2 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records