Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:20:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x547b…c543 other 14 markets active 7h ago coverage 106d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized −$7 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$11
world 33% $0
politics 29% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -7.2% -16.0% 33% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 4 -5.7% -14.6% 25% 0% -11.4%
all 7 -10.5% -19.0% 43% 0% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -19.2%
10% -26.8% 0% -26.9%
15% -33.9% 0% -34.0%
20% -40.3% 0% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage106d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? Yes 91¢ 85¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 90¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? No 74¢ 78¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+6%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 45¢ 51¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+15%)
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-39%)
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 11¢ 14¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+2%)
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? Jun 16 $7 $0 +5%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 13 $6 $0 -2%
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -24%
China coup attempt before 2027? Apr 24 $14 $0 -1%
Trump declares election interference national emergency? Mar 28 $50 $0 +0%
Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $19 −$10 -54%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Mar 15 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $4 6h
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL No 71¢ $6 10d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $5 14d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 17d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 19d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 25d
Will Somaliland join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $5 28d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 34d
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $10 34d
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 34d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $5 34d
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 34d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY No 61¢ $5 34d
Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 34d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 34d
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $6 36d
Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 36d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $7 61d
Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 61d
Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $2 63d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 42¢ $3 63d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 63d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $5 63d
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $11 63d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $3 65d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL No 36¢ $1 65d
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? SELL Yes 65¢ $8 65d
China coup attempt before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $9 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.55 · official $60.55 (match) · 64 history records