Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T16:50:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x5480…b38c sports 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$678 (+6%) realized +$731 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%19W / 20L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$272per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$161est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,973
7 days+$1,935
14 days+$612
30 days+$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +2.8% -6.9% 56% 56% +8.7%
≤30d 39 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 49% -4.5%
≤90d 39 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 49% -4.5%
all 39 -11.0% -19.5% 49% 49% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 49% -4.5%
10% -27.2% 44% -13.7%
15% -34.2% 41% -22.0%
20% -40.7% 28% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$234 vs −$192 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized+$731
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses19 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$161
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage7d
Avg bet$272
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A ASTRAL 67¢ 81¢ $142 $173 +$31 (+22%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Yellow Submarine 28¢ 28¢ $56 $55 −$1 (-2%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 30¢ $83 $0 −$82 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $478 −$476 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Jun 28 $1,205 +$1,319 +109%
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai Jun 27 $647 +$203 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma Jun 27 $424 +$176 +42%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $416 +$180 +43%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $167 +$313 +188%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 27 $116 +$49 +43%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $668 −$4 -0%
Counter-Strike: shimmer vs MIBR fe (BO5) - Rainhas do Clutch FERJEE Pl Jun 27 $336 +$75 +22%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $203 +$131 +65%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International Nor Jun 26 $101 −$100 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $620 +$106 +17%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $362 +$288 +80%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 26 $355 +$229 +64%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $125 −$123 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $177 −$57 -32%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $101 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $656 +$370 +56%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs FOKUS - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $68 +$75 +109%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $244 −$242 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $490 −$483 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $159 +$134 +84%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $135 +$62 +46%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $129 −$127 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $53 +$77 +145%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $22 +$10 +44%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $322 −$318 -99%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $43 −$42 -99%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 22 $255 −$252 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $433 +$580 +134%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $814 −$798 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $83 +$67 +80%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $188 −$186 -99%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $234 −$230 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $13 −$13 -97%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $80 −$79 -99%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qu Jun 21 $85 −$84 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $57 2m
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 30¢ $84 1h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $294 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $13 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 68¢ $165 2h
Counter-Strike: 6666 vs ASTRAL (BO1) - Urban Riga Open #5 Group A BUY ASTRAL 67¢ $143 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Ma BUY Ikram Aliskerov 70¢ $424 24h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 47¢ $1,205 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 100¢ $596 24h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 71¢ $215 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $135 25h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 67¢ $65 25h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 76¢ $459 25h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $45 27h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $30 27h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $3 28h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $75 28h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $30 28h
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Mai BUY Shara Magomedov 75¢ $4 28h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 30¢ $78 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 29¢ $5 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 28¢ $2 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $360 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $3 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 40¢ $81 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $10 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $15 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 71¢ $50 29h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Natus Vincere 72¢ $227 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.90 · official $227.92 (match) · 160 history records