Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5480…7f9a other 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% $0
other 25% +$3
politics 8% $0
crypto 4% $0
finance 4% +$1
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 2% −$2
weather 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 25% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 10 -0.1% -9.7% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 42 -2.1% -11.4% 50% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -9.0%
10% -19.9% 5% -17.7%
15% -27.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage475d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $3 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 26 $69 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $36 −$1 -3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $1 $0 -7%
Will Krishna Mathoera be the next president of Suriname after the elec Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 18 $17 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 16 $19 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 15 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 100–124 times April 11–18? Apr 14 $19 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 13 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 12 $12 $0 -2%
Circle IPO in 2025? Apr 12 $15 +$4 +27%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 05 $16 −$1 -4%
10-year Treasury yield below 4% before April? Apr 02 $2 $0 -6%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the third most seats in the next Canadian E Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 31 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 28 - April 4? Mar 31 $6 −$2 -40%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $19 $0 +0%
Will McDonald's worker get reward money before April? Mar 31 $19 $0 +1%
Will Netherlands win Eurovision 2025? Mar 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025? Mar 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will George Russell win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $19 +$1 +6%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 20 $15 +$4 +24%
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? Mar 02 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $37 19m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $37 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $25 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $9 10h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $36 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 27h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $23 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $33 43h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 23d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $17 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $16 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $33 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $27 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $6 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $7 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $23 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $29 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 69¢ $28 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 71¢ $36 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 25d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 126 history records