Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:23:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x5481…6678 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 658d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$9 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate69%34W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$36
14 days+$147
30 days+$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$243
other 34% +$71
sports 10% +$194
tech 7% +$10
world 2% $0
economics 0% −$15
crypto 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -17.5% -25.4% 67% 33% -14.2%
≤30d 19 +12.5% +1.8% 84% 63% +9.5%
≤90d 40 -5.8% -14.8% 72% 45% -9.4%
all 49 -9.1% -17.8% 69% 47% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 47% -9.7%
10% -25.6% 29% -18.3%
15% -32.8% 22% -26.2%
20% -39.4% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$40 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

658d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses34 / 15
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage658d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $150 $163 +$13 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Jun 28 $90 +$6 +7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $35 −$35 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 +$6 +9%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $51 +$31 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $181 +$18 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 +$25 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $61 +$29 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$10 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $183 +$153 +84%
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana Jun 09 $57 +$3 +4%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $200 +$10 +5%
Will Keisha Lance Bottoms win the 2026 Georgia Governor Democratic pri May 20 $81 +$15 +18%
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? May 20 $74 +$16 +21%
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary May 13 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? May 12 $70 +$4 +6%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 09 $101 +$8 +8%
Will Jeffrey Kessler be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virg May 08 $131 −$130 -99%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $138 +$39 +29%
Will Derek Merrin be the Republican nominee for OH-09? May 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United May 04 $120 +$4 +4%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? Apr 28 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $100 +$6 +6%
Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass? Apr 22 $100 +$16 +16%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 19 $60 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of April 13 above $410? Apr 18 $80 +$17 +21%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 Apr 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at >$370 on the final day of trading of the we Apr 16 $80 −$13 -16%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Apr 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Dolphins vs. Bills Sep 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum above $2,400 on September 13? Sep 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Who will win the debate according to polls? Sep 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "fake news" at debate? Sep 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Who will speak more at the debate? Sep 11 $3 +$1 +43%
Who is asked the first debate question? Sep 11 $10 +$3 +27%
49ers vs. Jets Sep 10 $4 +$2 +52%
Lions vs. Rams Sep 09 $10 +$4 +41%
US Open Final: Sinner vs. Fritz Sep 08 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? SELL Yes 96¢ $97 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $77 3d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $71 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 61¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 6d
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? BUY Yes 89¢ $90 6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $199 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $60 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $61 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $100 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $45 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $63 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 9d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $61 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 10d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 13d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $181 13d
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $152 13d
Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana SELL Yes 91¢ $60 19d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $183 23d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 37d
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary SELL Yes 85¢ $27 45d
Will Charles Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? BUY Yes 82¢ $74 46d
Will Earl Carter be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? SELL No 99¢ $74 46d
Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary BUY Yes 87¢ $28 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.64 · official $162.64 (match) · 92 history records