Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5482…bd61 sports 146 markets active 12h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$890 (-4%) realized −$891 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%66W / 71L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$249
14 days−$287
30 days−$1,232
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$1,303
other 14% +$291
world 13% +$16
finance 0% +$38
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -4.2% -13.3% 44% 44% -40.8%
≤30d 32 -14.1% -22.2% 41% 31% -26.7%
≤90d 137 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 34% -13.3%
all 137 -11.9% -20.3% 48% 34% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 34% -13.3%
10% -28.0% 20% -21.6%
15% -34.9% 13% -29.1%
20% -41.3% 9% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$51 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$891
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses66 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions8
Markets (closed)137 / 146
History coverage78d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 34¢ 32¢ $22 $21 −$2 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Riyadh Falcons 41¢ 42¢ $14 $14 +$1 (+4%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 76¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+37%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+19%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? No 36¢ 38¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty League Stage 4 Major Qualifiers Qualifier Cloud9 New York 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$3 -42%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $14 +$12 +87%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$22 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $80 +$10 +12%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $89 +$10 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$42 +414%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $83 +$16 +19%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $213 −$66 -31%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $41 +$28 +67%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Le May 31 $666 −$275 -41%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call May 30 $427 +$62 +15%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas - Game 2 Winner May 30 $23 −$23 -99%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 30 $161 −$32 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $77 +$57 +73%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Lea May 29 $107 −$47 -44%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag May 29 $267 +$20 +7%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut May 29 $674 −$624 -93%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 23 $25 −$9 -36%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $25 −$7 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $1,399 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,553 +$33 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $4 −$2 -58%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League M May 17 $426 +$106 +25%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 17 $553 +$256 +46%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 16 $352 +$43 +12%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of Dut May 16 $10 +$3 +33%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu May 16 $318 +$13 +4%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $25 −$7 -28%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu May 16 $278 +$52 +19%
Call of Duty: Project Notorious vs Paris Gentle Mates (BO5) - Call of May 15 $30 +$4 +14%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of May 15 $86 +$63 +73%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag May 11 $782 +$98 +12%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty May 11 $831 +$17 +2%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Dut May 10 $769 +$43 +6%
Call of Duty: G2 Minnesota vs Boston Breach (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu May 10 $913 −$98 -11%
Call of Duty: OpTic Texas vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League St May 10 $830 +$19 +2%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens - Game 3 Wi May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Cal May 09 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-04-11? May 05 $1,117 +$231 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D BUY Cloud9 New York 7¢ $0 11h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D BUY Cloud9 New York 7¢ $0 11h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D BUY Cloud9 New York 7¢ $0 11h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D BUY Cloud9 New York 7¢ $0 11h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D BUY Cloud9 New York 7¢ $0 11h
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of D BUY Cloud9 New York 7¢ $0 11h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Riyadh Falcons 41¢ $7 20h
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League BUY Riyadh Falcons 41¢ $7 21h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $13 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $8 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 77¢ $30 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 31¢ $4 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $23 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL No 56¢ $4 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $0 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $2 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $7 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $4 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $6 24h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 42h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 42h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 36¢ $2 43h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $4 43h
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 34¢ $23 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $4 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 52¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.41 · official $67.48 (match) · 988 history records