Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:48:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x5486…7924 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+4%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$22
other 33% −$2
politics 11% $0
tech 7% +$1
crypto 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +6.4% -3.7% 25% 12% -4.7%
≤90d 8 +6.4% -3.7% 25% 12% -4.7%
all 19 -1.9% -11.3% 37% 5% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 5% -5.6%
10% -19.7% 5% -14.6%
15% -27.5% 5% -22.9%
20% -34.6% 5% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$0 · ×9.01 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.88 per $1 lost it wins $7.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage452d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 51¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $56 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $40 +$23 +57%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $3 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Dec 13 $11 $0 +2%
Will Aston Martin be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Dec 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $11 $0 +3%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 05 $12 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Apr 01 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 25 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $17 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $56 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $56 24h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $56 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $44 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $6 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $42 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $56 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $39 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $19 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $29 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 51¢ $24 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 55¢ $43 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 55¢ $19 25d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 35¢ $40 25d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $3 26d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $3 26d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $18 28d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $24 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records