Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:27:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x5486…0dd3 crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%42W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$5
crypto 9% +$2
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% −$3
politics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 52 -0.4% -9.9% 81% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses42 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage528d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $32 $0 +0%
XRP all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 03 $24 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? Sep 01 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Sep 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $7 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? Aug 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? Jul 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 03 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 21 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 18 $5,433 −$5 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 01 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Mar 14 $31 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $3750 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $17 +$1 +8%
Will Ethereum hit $4,750 by January 31, 2025? Feb 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 22 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Feb 18 $18 $0 -0%
Will Dominic Solanke be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Feb 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will Real Betis win La Liga? Jan 27 $9 −$3 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $35 30d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? BUY No 100¢ $30 62d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 99¢ $6 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $42 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $16 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $29 123d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 150d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $32 150d
XRP all time high by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $4 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $14 211d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY No 100¢ $29 212d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 243d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 243d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $6 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 272d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $22 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in August? BUY No 100¢ $4 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $10 303d
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? BUY No 100¢ $34 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 99¢ $7 334d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $12 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in July? BUY No 100¢ $30 335d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $11 367d
Will Solana dip to $100 in June? BUY No 99¢ $6 367d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 394d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 396d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.84 · official $42.84 (match) · 108 history records