Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:10:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5487…84d3 politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate17%13W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% −$7
sports 17% −$3
other 14% $0
world 5% +$1
culture 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% −$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +10.9% +0.3% 67% 33% -8.9%
≤30d 5 +6.4% -3.7% 40% 20% -9.3%
≤90d 5 +6.4% -3.7% 40% 20% -9.3%
all 78 -7.3% -16.1% 17% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 1% -9.7%
10% -24.1% 1% -18.3%
15% -31.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -38.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses13 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage274d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $95 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $3 +$1 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 14 $94 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $99 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $98 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $3 $0 -8%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 17 $98 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $98 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $3 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $96 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $201 $0 -0%
Will Wolves win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 22 $94 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $3 $0 -12%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Unbelievable" or "Fantastic" or "Incredible" 10+ times Jan 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $197 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 13 $207 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 11 $1 $0 -50%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 09 $1 $0 -50%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $100 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $1 $0 -8%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $97 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 07 $3 $0 -16%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will Raul Perestrello win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $107 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $110 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 29 $98 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 27 $100 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 26 $201 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 18 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $106 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $99 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 15 $104 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $103 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $105 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 07 $106 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 1h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 45h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $98 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 99¢ $94 8d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 99¢ $94 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 18d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $99 18d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $99 24d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $96 112d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 115d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 119d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 119d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 121d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 121d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 123d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 123d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 125d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 100¢ $98 125d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 100¢ $98 132d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $98 142d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $98 142d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 145d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 146d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $98 147d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $96 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 268 history records