Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:44:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x5488…0a02 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%20W / 23L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% +$1
other 15% +$1
politics 7% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 45% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 43 -1.1% -10.5% 47% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses20 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage466d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $45 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $3 $0 +3%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $2 $0 -5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $40 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $7 $0 +3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $44 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -8%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $25 +$2 +6%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
US military action against Iran by Thursday? Jun 21 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 08 $16 $0 -1%
Will Ivica Zubac win 2024-25 NBA Most Improved? Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 29 $14 $0 +3%
Israel military action against Iranian nuclear facility in March? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 61°F or higher on March 24? Mar 26 $14 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 18 $14 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $45 30m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 10h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 18h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 20h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $10 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 77¢ $30 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 77¢ $40 33h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 38h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 40h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 44h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 46h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 46h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 46h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $44 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $44 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $8 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $8 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 116 history records