Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:51:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x548a…9a4d world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 349d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$40 (-1%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%34W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days−$8
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$42
politics 30% +$1
other 22% +$1
sports 9% −$3
economics 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.4% +6.2% 20% 20% -4.6%
≤30d 26 +2.8% -6.9% 27% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 70 -0.1% -9.6% 31% 3% -9.5%
all 95 -3.4% -12.6% 36% 2% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 2% -10.4%
10% -21.0% 1% -19.0%
15% -28.6% 1% -26.8%
20% -35.6% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

349d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses34 / 61
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)95 / 96
History coverage349d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $25 −$2 -7%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $59 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $12 +$12 +95%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $57 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $95 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $29 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $126 −$17 -13%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $57 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $60 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $28 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 -15%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $30 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $110 +$9 +8%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $35 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $29 +$3 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $57 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $106 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $22 $0 -1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 26 $3 −$3 -91%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $33 $0 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $66 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $62 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $81 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $56 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $75 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $57 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $146 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? Apr 11 $40 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 3h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $36 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $22 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $1 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $25 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $36 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $23 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $12 5d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 7d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $17 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $15 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $13 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 66¢ $28 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $6 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $6 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $19 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 373 history records