Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x548c…1da0 crypto 1990 markets active 2h ago coverage 56d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$228 (-6%) realized −$228 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate66%1310W / 661L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$12
14 days+$52
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 195 +3.0% -6.8% 79% 79% -7.6%
≤30d 814 +3.9% -6.0% 77% 77% -6.7%
≤90d 1971 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 66% -10.5%
all 1971 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 66% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 66% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 57% -19.0%
15% -26.9% 40% -26.9%
20% -34.1% 28% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$228
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses1310 / 661
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1971 / 1990
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1971 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records