Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:32:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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54 0x548c…af84 crypto 1350 markets active 2h ago coverage 109d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$249 (-3%) realized −$248 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate56%753W / 594L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$56
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$374
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.9% -12.2% 62% 0% -13.0%
≤30d 65 -8.9% -17.6% 48% 15% -18.0%
≤90d 652 -4.9% -14.0% 55% 51% -13.4%
all 1347 -4.5% -13.6% 56% 54% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 54% -13.7%
10% -21.9% 52% -22.0%
15% -29.4% 49% -29.5%
20% -36.3% 45% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$248
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses753 / 594
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1347 / 1350
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1347 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 90¢ 93¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 90¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Yes 85¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? Jun 17 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -79%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $9 −$3 -35%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 13 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$2 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $9 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $23 −$1 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $27 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $12 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $33 −$2 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 09 $4 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 09 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 09 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $18 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$1 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 08 $17 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $23 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 07 $24 −$3 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 12? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 07 $4 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 07 $4 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 07 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 07 $5 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $39 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 85¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? SELL No 95¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 89¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? SELL No 94¢ $5 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 87¢ $4 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL No 97¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 19¢ $1 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $5 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 18? BUY No 86¢ $4 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $4 45h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 46h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 30¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 97¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $4 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 91¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY No 90¢ $5 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 89¢ $4 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL No 90¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 93¢ $5 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 53¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.84 · official $11.85 (match) · 3500 history records