Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T05:29:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x548c…4767 sports 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$479 (-9%) realized −$480 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate73%111W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$138
14 days+$3
30 days−$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$503
other 27% +$13
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +5.7% -4.3% 70% 45% +2.4%
≤30d 152 -1.6% -11.0% 73% 30% -17.8%
≤90d 152 -1.6% -11.0% 73% 30% -17.8%
all 152 -1.6% -11.0% 73% 30% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 30% -17.8%
10% -19.5% 25% -25.7%
15% -27.3% 21% -32.8%
20% -34.4% 15% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$34 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$480
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses111 / 41
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions3
Markets (closed)152 / 155
History coverage16d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 54¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 66¢ 65¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $41 +$37 +91%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$10 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$6 +20%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$11 +38%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 +$59 +146%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $20 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$22 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $40 +$7 +17%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo Jun 23 $20 +$2 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $20 +$1 +4%
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$11 +55%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$24 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $40 +$4 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu Jun 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$20 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$2 +23%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $20 +$1 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $20 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 +$22 +365%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Jun 18 $20 +$1 +6%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 1h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 3h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 98¢ $20 11h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Pol Martin Tiffon BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 96¢ $20 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 14h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 14h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 14h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 14h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 14h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 32h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Hanyu Guo BUY Xiyu Wang 91¢ $20 35h
Targu Mures: Radu Albot vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Radu Albot 86¢ $10 38h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 96¢ $20 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $40 47h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $40 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 92¢ $20 2d
Bad Homburg Open: Venus Williams vs Irina-Camelia Begu BUY Irina-Camelia Begu 94¢ $20 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $40 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.19 · official $111.20 (match) · 274 history records