Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:10:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x548e…9d41 sports 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$733 (-4%) realized −$734 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%61W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$74
7 days+$67
14 days−$5
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$588
other 1% −$122
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +17.2% +6.0% 71% 71% -2.4%
≤30d 28 +4.0% -5.9% 61% 61% -9.0%
≤90d 82 -3.6% -12.7% 45% 44% -15.8%
all 129 -2.9% -12.1% 47% 47% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 47% -13.6%
10% -20.5% 44% -21.8%
15% -28.2% 40% -29.4%
20% -35.3% 31% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$107 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized−$734
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses61 / 68
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage164d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 72¢ 72¢ $144 $145 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $153 −$152 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $142 +$78 +55%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $131 +$69 +52%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $132 −$132 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $90 +$110 +122%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $135 +$65 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $70 +$30 +44%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $123 −$122 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $111 +$89 +79%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $101 +$53 +52%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $58 +$42 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $135 −$134 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $101 +$49 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $129 −$128 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 02 $87 +$113 +129%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 01 $125 −$124 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $111 −$110 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 30 $99 −$98 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 29 $115 +$85 +73%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $85 −$84 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $77 −$76 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $113 +$87 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $91 +$109 +119%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $95 +$105 +109%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $137 +$63 +46%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $139 +$61 +44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 18 $137 −$136 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $129 −$128 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 17 $103 −$3 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $133 +$67 +50%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $125 −$124 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $157 +$43 +27%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $247 +$53 +21%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $155 +$45 +29%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 10 $129 −$128 -99%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 08 $147 −$144 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $83 −$82 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $120 −$117 -98%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 05 $190 −$190 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Playoffs May 04 $120 −$117 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $118 −$116 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $167 −$164 -98%
Suns vs. Thunder May 01 $203 −$3 -2%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $91 −$90 -98%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $129 −$127 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $172 +$222 +129%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $145 −$142 -98%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 25 $93 −$91 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $46 37m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $10 58m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $18 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $13 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $7 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 72¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $153 20h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $142 2d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $131 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $25 4d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 66¢ $107 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $38 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $6 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $22 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $22 5d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $1 5d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $135 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 7d
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage BUY NRG 61¢ $123 7d
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 55¢ $111 9d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Team Vitality 65¢ $101 10d
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo BUY Leviatán Esports 57¢ $58 11d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $135 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 67¢ $101 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $129 16d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $125 17d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 55¢ $111 18d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 49¢ $99 19d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $87 19d
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 57¢ $115 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $144.99 · official $144.99 (match) · 232 history records