Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:59:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x548f…9d70 other 160 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,677 (-1%) realized −$1,677 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate16%25W / 133L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,072per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,001now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$37
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$61
politics 33% −$81
sports 8% −$1,667
economics 3% −$3
culture 3% −$6
world 2% −$5
tech 1% −$2
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 33 +5.0% -5.0% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 91 -0.4% -9.9% 7% 2% -10.8%
all 158 -2.7% -12.0% 16% 8% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 8% -10.4%
10% -20.4% 8% -19.0%
15% -28.1% 7% -26.8%
20% -35.1% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,610) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$21 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$1,001
Realized−$1,677
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses25 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)158 / 160
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,072
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $547 $546 −$0 (-0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $454 $455 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 22 $1,165 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 22 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,910 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $237 +$1 +1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $4,622 −$5 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,179 −$4 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,442 −$4 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $2,765 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,810 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,657 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,569 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,150 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,107 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,793 −$3 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,651 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $63 +$82 +129%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,575 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,212 −$1 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 03 $54 +$75 +140%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $602 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $314 +$1 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,416 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,794 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $2,797 −$3 -0%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,739 −$2 -0%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $2,045 −$12 -1%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,238 −$2 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 20 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,808 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $868 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $2,419 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,336 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 09 $949 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,124 −$3 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,726 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $821 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $547 3m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $631 11m
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $632 2h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $642 3h
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $643 5h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $865 44h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $866 46h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $934 4d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $936 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,172 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,258 5d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,260 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,562 6d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,564 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,609 6d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,610 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,202 7d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,204 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,643 7d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,645 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,655 8d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,657 9d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $455 9d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,567 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,569 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,481 12d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,483 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,559 13d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,561 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,001.30 · official $1,001.30 (match) · 536 history records